New oil and natural gas investment and drilling is constantly needed to offset natural declines

Oil and natural gas production requires constant investment and development. Without new drilling, crude oil production can quickly decline. For example, in the Gulf of America, if all new drilling stopped, crude oil production could decline from 1.8 mb/d in 1Q2025 to 1.1 mb/d by 4Q2028, according to Rystad data. This is a 38% decline in less than 4 years. U.S. EIA estimates that many of the new fields in deepwater Gulf of America ramp up production over ~2 years, maintain peak production levels for ~4 years, and then decline at ~10% per year. Onshore U.S. shale production has a much steeper decline curve where production in a new well peaks in the first month and declines by ~70% in the first year.