Posted December 8, 2015
The economy-wide arguments in favor of lifting America’s 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports are detailed in a number of recent studies. Some of ICF International’s numbers:
- 300,000 – The economy could gain up to 300,000 additional jobs in 2020 when crude exports are allowed.
- $38 billion – U.S. GDP could increase by this amount in 2020 and an average of $15 billion to $27 billion annually through 2035.
- $5.8 billion – Estimated reduced consumer fuel costs per year, on average, 2015-2035.
- $70 billion – Expansion of crude exports could result in $15 billion to $70 billion of additional investments in U.S. exploration, development and production, 2015-2020.
- $13.5 billion – U.S. federal, state and local tax receipts attributable to GDP increases from expanding crude oil exports could increase up to this amount in 2020.
The economic boost is state and local as well. A study of the state-by-state impacts of lifting the crude oil export ban by ICF and EnSys Energy shows the economies in nearly every state would receive a boost in 2020, with nine state’s economies increasing by more than $1 billion. In addition, 18 states would gain more than 5,000 jobs each in 2020, according to the study:
Oil producers such as Texas and North Dakota could see employment gains up to nearly 41,000 and 22,200 jobs in 2020, respectively, due to crude exports, while non-producers such as California, a large manufacturing center, could gain up to 23,800. Other manufacturing intensive states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York could see job gains up to 14,500-16,000 jobs in 2020.
Here’s a video that zeroes in on the benefits Pennsylvania could realize if the exports ban is lifted:
The overarching point in each of them is this: A national policy decision to end an outdated, anti-competitive ban on the export of U.S. crude oil would have broad, positive impact at the state level – helping to create jobs and increase income – not just in energy-producing states but in non-producing states as well. These impacts include changes in production itself, but also changes in refinery throughput, in import-export port services, transportation needs and in costs to consumers for gasoline, diesel and heating oil. API’s Kyle Isakower, vice president for regulatory and economic policy:
“The U.S. is poised to become the world’s largest oil producer, and access to foreign customers will create economic opportunities across the country. When it comes to crude oil, the rewards of free trade are not limited to energy producing states. New jobs, higher investment, and greater energy security from exports could benefit workers and consumers from Illinois to New York, especially in areas where consumer spending and manufacturing drive growth.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mark Green joined API after a career in newspaper journalism, including 16 years as national editorial writer for The Oklahoman in the paper’s Washington bureau. Mark also was a reporter, copy editor and sports editor. He earned his journalism degree from the University of Oklahoma and master’s in journalism and public affairs from American University. He and his wife Pamela live in Occoquan, Va., where they enjoy their four grandchildren.